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Michael Pettis· @michaelxpettis · X·· 20 小时前AI 关注度68
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该推文讨论全球贸易增速与GDP对比,并提出中美双边贸易经第三国中转后可能被重复统计,从而高估贸易增速。这一讨论涉及中国出口与全球产业链结构,但未指向具体政策或公司。

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Bloomberg: "To be fair, the trade in physical goods hasn’t expanded as fast as the overall global economy over the past decade, which means it isn’t the engine it once was. But neither has it collapsed. And the World Trade Organization this week said it actually expected that, at 3.9% this year, trade would again grow faster than global GDP."

Could we be misunderstanding the data? After all, while both the US deficit and Chinese surplus have continued to grow, the US deficit with China has dropped sharply, which suggests that what used to show up in the data as $100 trade between China and the US may now show up in the data as $200-300 of trade as the goods are intermediated through various countries. In that case is trade really growing nearly as fast as the growth in trade data?
https://t.co/hEBnmQj7YW

来源:Michael Pettis · twitter.com